The US holiday retail season in 2025 is expected to be dynamic and fast-changing. Consumers, retailers, payment processors, and analysts alike are gearing up for a season influenced by new technologies, shifting behaviors, and economic realities.

In this blog, we break down the most important trends – from the balance of e-commerce and in-store shopping to the rise of AI, new payment methods, social commerce, logistics innovations, sustainability efforts, economic pressures, and cutting-edge retail innovations.

Top 9 Retail Shopping Trends For the 2025 Holiday Season

E-Commerce vs In-Store: Blending Channels in 2025

Even post-pandemic, brick-and-mortar stores remain crucial – about 80% of US holiday retail spending still happens in physical channels. However, online shopping keeps growing its share steadily. Holiday 2024 saw online sales surge 6.7% year-over-year, far outpacing the 2.9% growth of in-store sales. E-commerce accounted for roughly 19–20% of total holiday sales last year, a proportion that edges upward annually. This doesn’t mean stores are irrelevant – quite the opposite.

A whopping 93% of consumers surveyed said they plan to shop both online and in-person for the holidays, indicating an omnichannel approach. Shoppers enjoy browsing online for deals and inspiration, then perhaps visiting stores for the tactile experience or immediate pickup. Services that blend channels have boomed – for example, “buy online, pick up in-store” (BOPIS) orders doubled during the weekend before Christmas 2024, making up nearly 40% of all online transactions in those last-minute days.

Retailers like Walmart and Target leaned into this by beefing up store pickup and curbside options, effectively using their stores as fulfillment hubs.

AI, Personalization, and Smart Recommendations

Artificial intelligence is set to play its biggest holiday role yet in 2025. Retailers have been investing heavily in AI-driven personalization – using algorithms to tailor product recommendations, marketing emails, and even pricing to individual shoppers. Consumers are noticing the benefits. In a recent survey, nearly 90% of shoppers said they planned to use AI tools in some form for holiday shopping. Many will be interacting with AI chatbots to find sales or gift ideas – about 73% of shoppers reported using AI chatbots to hunt for deals and discounts in 2024.

This year, those chatbots are smarter and more human-like, thanks to advances in generative AI. For instance, some retail websites now feature virtual gift assistants that can ask you questions and then suggest the perfect gift. AI’s impact goes beyond chatbots – recommendation engines have become hyper-personal. Shoppers scrolling a retailer’s app might see a “For You” section powered by their past browsing and purchasing data. These AI recommendations can boost sales by surfacing relevant products (and reducing the paradox of choice for consumers). Retailers are also using AI on the back-end – for example, to forecast inventory so that hot items don’t stock out, and to automate customer service via voice AI.

Surveys after the 2024 season showed 56% of shoppers felt happier with their holiday experience thanks to AI tools, as AI helped them find gifts faster and track deliveries. In 2025, expect AI to be an invisible Santa’s helper underpinning many shopping journeys, making them more personalized, efficient, and even a bit more fun. The key for retailers is to use AI in a way that enhances convenience without feeling intrusive or gimmicky.

Next-Gen Payments: Digital Wallets, BNPL, and Real-Time Options

How shoppers pay for gifts is also changing rapidly. Digital wallets like Apple Pay, Google Pay, and PayPal are now mainstream at checkout. In the US, roughly 37% of online transactions and 15% of in-store point-of-sale transactions are now made via digital wallets – a number that keeps climbing as more people get comfortable tapping their phones or using one-click online pay.

Shoppers appreciate the speed and security of these methods, and many younger consumers hardly carry cash or even physical cards anymore. This holiday season, more retailers will promote digital wallet payments (with incentives like extra rewards or cashback) to speed up lines and reduce friction. Another payment trend that’s booming is Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL). Services like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna let shoppers split purchases into installments, often interest-free. During the holidays, with big gift purchases, this is especially tempting. About 20% of US holiday shoppers used BNPL in 2023, and total BNPL holiday purchase volume was around $18.5 billion in 2024 (up 11% year-over-year).

We saw BNPL usage hit record levels on big sale days – for example, shoppers financed nearly $1 billion via BNPL on Cyber Monday 2024, a 27% jump from the prior year. In an inflationary environment, spreading payments out helps consumers manage budgets, and retailers often see higher average order values when BNPL is used. In 2025, expect even more checkout options to “buy now, pay later,” and possibly more transparent disclosures to shoppers about payment schedules as regulators keep an eye on this sector.

The real-time payments revolution is also on the horizon. The US recently launched FedNow (July 2023), and the private RTP network has expanded, enabling instant bank-to-bank money transfers. By late 2024, over 1,200 banks were already onboard with FedNow. This opens the door for instant payments in retail – for example, imagine paying directly from your bank app and the merchant getting funds immediately, without card networks in between. While we likely won’t see mass adoption of bank-to-bank payment at the checkout by holiday 2025, some early examples are emerging. Certain bills and invoices can now be paid in real-time, and fintech apps might start offering “pay by bank” options for online shopping. Real-time payouts could also mean things like instant refunds or faster loyalty reward redemptions.

Social Commerce and Influencer Marketing

Social media isn’t just for inspiration anymore – it’s a direct shopping channel. Around 89% of consumers say social media impacts their holiday purchase decisions, making platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube pivotal in 2025’s holiday marketing. Scrolling feeds and stories, shoppers discover trending products and gift ideas, often through influencers. In fact, social platforms have become the primary source of gift inspiration for 30% of holiday shoppers, even ahead of recommendations from friends and family.

This year, over half of shoppers (52%) report having made a holiday purchase based on an influencer’s recommendation. Whether it’s a tech reviewer’s YouTube gift guide or a TikTok creator’s try-on haul showcasing a new fashion line, influencers are driving product discovery and trust. Platforms are catering to this trend by adding seamless shopping features. TikTok launched in-app shopping (TikTok Shop) in the US, allowing users to buy products they see in a video without leaving the app. TikTok is expected to be the top social commerce platform for Gen Z (54% of whom prefer it for direct purchases) and Millennials (47%) in 2025. Instagram and Facebook have integrated shops as well. Even Pinterest has “buy” buttons on pins.

Essentially, the line between content and commerce has blurred – you can see a product and immediately tap to purchase. Influencer marketing around the holidays has also ramped up in sophistication. Brands are collaborating with creators for limited-edition product lines, holiday live-shopping events, and viral challenges to promote deals.

For example, a beauty brand might have a popular makeup YouTuber host a live “holiday look” tutorial where viewers can click to buy the featured items. User-generated content (UGC) is hugely influential too – 79% of consumers say UGC (like reviews and unboxing videos) impacts their purchases. Social proof matters when shoppers are choosing between gift options. In 2025, retailers will allocate more ad budget to social channels and empower influencers as a core part of their holiday campaigns. For consumers, this means your social feeds will be filled with gift ideas, and checking Instagram or TikTok might be just as important as visiting a store when it comes to holiday shopping.

Faster Fulfillment and Shipping Innovations

Getting gifts delivered on time (and cheaply) is always a holiday concern. The good news is that retailers and carriers have been innovating to speed up fulfillment. Delivery logistics are more efficient in 2025 than ever before. As an example, average delivery times in November 2024 were about 3.7 days from order to doorstep – a 27% improvement in speed compared to the year prior.

Years of investment in more local warehouses, better software for route optimization, and larger carrier networks have paid off, so customers can procrastinate a bit longer and still get their packages by Christmas. Amazon’s push for same-day and next-day delivery as the norm has pressured the whole industry to step up. We’re seeing major retailers offer guarantees like “order by Dec 22, get it by Dec 24” thanks to these logistics gains. To avoid bottlenecks, companies have also expanded alternative delivery options. Curbside and in-store pickup remain popular for those who don’t want to risk shipping delays – and as noted, BOPIS orders spiked in late 2024.

Parcel carriers and local delivery startups are working together; for instance, regional carriers (OnTrac, LaserShip, etc.) are handling overflow in addition to UPS, FedEx, and USPS. Retailers on average used more carriers in 2024 (about two additional carriers per shipper vs. a couple of years ago) to ensure capacity during peak season. This diversification reduces the chance of any one carrier’s delays impacting customers. We’re also seeing exciting last-mile innovations. While still in pilot phases, drone deliveries and robot couriers are expanding. Amazon’s Prime Air drones, for example, started operating in a few US towns and are slated to expand further; the company even envisions potentially millions of drone deliveries per year by late this decade.

Other retailers like Walmart have tested drone drop-offs for small packages. On the ground, autonomous delivery robots roam some city sidewalks (typically carrying takeout or groceries) – these could one day carry gifts to your door. For most Americans, these won’t be mainstream in 2025’s holidays, but it shows the direction of travel. Additionally, the industry has learned to cope with returns (which spike after the holidays).

“Reverse logistics” improvements mean easier drop-off points for returns and quicker processing, which indirectly helps consumers feel confident buying online. All told, shipping is faster and more reliable this season than it’s been in years, though consumers still need to mind retailer cutoff dates. The expectation now is instant gratification – if a site or store can’t promise quick, trackable delivery, shoppers might go to a competitor who can. Speed and convenience in fulfillment have become as much of a differentiator as price or product selection in the battle for holiday customers.

Sustainability and Ethical Shopping

Holiday shoppers in 2025 aren’t just looking for the best deal; many are also considering the planet and ethical factors in their purchases. There’s a noticeable shift toward sustainability and conscious consumption. For instance, consumers increasingly seek out eco-friendly gifts, whether that means items made from recycled materials, products that are built to last (reducing waste), or even opting to gift experiences instead of physical goods.

According to global surveys, despite tighter budgets, people are willing to pay around 10% more on average for products that are sustainably produced or sourced. Climate concerns are top of mind for younger shoppers, especially many of whom have witnessed extreme weather events and want to support brands that are part of the solution. About 85% of consumers say they have personally felt the effects of climate change and are prioritizing sustainable practices in their shopping.

This holiday season, expect to see retailers advertising their green credentials, such as carbon-neutral shipping, recyclable gift wrap, or take-back programs for old electronics and toys. More brands are promoting ethical sourcing, too, like fair-trade certified goods or donations to social causes with each purchase. “Buy local” movements have gained momentum, as shoppers choose local artisans or small businesses to reduce the carbon footprint of long-distance shipping (and to support community businesses). Some consumers are also turning to resale and thrift platforms for gifts, which is the ultimate form of recycling – a trend known as “re-commerce.”

Gently used designer handbags or vintage vinyl records can make unique, sustainable presents. Ethical shopping extends to how companies treat workers as well. Shoppers are paying attention to whether their gifts are made in safe factories with fair wages. The holidays have sometimes been associated with excess and waste, but today’s consumers are increasingly mindful. Many families are making sustainable choices like using reusable gift bags, LED holiday lights to save energy, or sending digital gift cards (reducing plastic).

A recent survey noted consumers willing to pay a sustainability premium of nearly 10% even amidst inflation, which signals that values can trump price sensitivity for a significant segment of buyers. In response, retailers that authentically embrace sustainability and ethics, not just greenwashing, are likely to win customer loyalty. 2025’s holiday shoppers are looking to feel good about their purchases on multiple levels – a great gift, a great price, and aligned with their values.

Inflation, Deals, and the Consumer Spending Outlook

Economic undercurrents in 2025 are shaping how much people will spend and what they’ll buy. After a few years of high inflation eating into household budgets, consumers remain cost-conscious. Many shoppers are hunting for deals more aggressively – over half say promotions heavily motivate their holiday purchases. In 2024, retailers noted that 52% of consumers were actively seeking discounts, and 42% planned to buy fewer gifts due to rising prices.

That trend continues into 2025 as buyers are expected to be very value-driven. We may see slightly fewer frivolous impulse buys and more focus on getting the most bang for the buck. In practice, this means longer comparison shopping, waiting for major sale days (like Black Friday/Cyber Monday or even last-minute clearance), and perhaps prioritizing practical gifts. Retailers, aware of this mindset, started holiday promotions early and will likely offer generous price matching and bundle deals to entice hesitant spenders. Overall holiday sales are still projected to grow, but modestly.

Major analysts forecast around 3%–4% growth in US retail sales for the holiday season 2024, which was below the historical average. Preliminary data showed total 2024 holiday retail sales up 3.8%, and a similar modest growth rate is expected for 2025, given the economic backdrop. Essentially, people are spending, but they’re being careful and stretching their dollars. High interest rates and record credit card debt levels mean some consumers will rein in purchases to avoid January bill shock. We’re also seeing a bit of a bifurcation as higher-income households largely sustained their spending, while lower-income households are cutting back or trading down to cheaper options. Despite the caution, the holidays remain a priority – families are simply finding ways to celebrate within their means.

Surveys by Deloitte and others indicate most consumers intend to spend about the same as last year on gifts, with some shifting what they spend on (for example, more gift cards or necessities as gifts). Gift budgets in 2023 averaged around $920 per person in the US, slightly down from prior years, and 2025 will likely be in that ballpark. To accommodate economic pressures, retailers are focusing on “extended holiday value.” That includes everything from layaway programs to emphasizing their budget lines to promoting secondhand or refurbished items.

Dollar stores and discount chains might see increased traffic for stocking stuffers and decor. Meanwhile, experiences (like event tickets or subscriptions) can be appealing gifts that offer good value.

Immersive Shopping: AR, VR, and Virtual Experiences

One of the more futuristic trends hitting retail by holiday 2025 is the rise of augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) in shopping. These technologies are making shopping more immersive and interactive, almost like a blend of gaming and commerce. A significant chunk of consumers (especially younger ones) are curious about these experiences; around 31% of US consumers expressed interest in shopping via VR as an alternative to physical stores.

Retailers have taken note, with over half of brands (55%) planning to boost investments in immersive experiences through 2026. This holiday season, we’re seeing some creative implementations. Amazon launched a “Virtual Holiday Shop,” a 3D platform where customers can walk through themed virtual showrooms and browse lifelike digital products. Think of it as a virtual mall – you could navigate a winter wonderland scene, click on a virtual TV in a living room display, and see details or buy it. It’s an experiment to make online shopping more experiential.

Similarly, IKEA opened a virtual store in the Roblox metaverse platform, letting people wander a digital IKEA with pixelated furniture and even interact with virtual staff. These efforts are early, but they aim to capture some of the discovery joy you get from real window-shopping, translated into the online realm. AR is even more widespread as many retailers offer AR features in their mobile apps or websites. For example, you can use your phone camera to visualize how a piece of furniture or holiday décor would look in your living room before buying. Cosmetics brands have AR “try-on” tools so you can see how a certain makeup shade looks on your face digitally.

For holiday shoppers, AR can be a helpful tool to ensure gifts like a painting or a lamp will fit the recipient’s space or style. On the fun side, some toy stores have AR games for kids to hunt for virtual prizes in the aisle, and sneaker brands might release limited-edition virtual shoes that can be “worn” by your avatar in a game. While mass adoption of full VR shopping is still a bit away, these immersive technologies are laying the groundwork for a new way to shop. They particularly resonate with Gen Z, who are comfortable in virtual environments. And as hardware (like AR glasses or VR headsets) becomes more accessible, more shoppers could join virtual Black Friday crowds from their couches.

Importantly, these tools also help retailers gather data on what virtual products or layouts attract interest, which can inform real-world merchandising. For holiday 2025, consider trying one of these AR/VR experiences if you haven’t – they might add a novel twist to your shopping routine and help you explore products in a whole new light.

Retail Media Networks Come of Age

An often behind-the-scenes trend that’s exploding in retail is the rise of retail media networks – essentially, retailers selling ad space using their customer data. If you’ve shopped on Amazon and seen sponsored products, or browsed Walmart’s site and noticed banner ads for a brand, that’s retail media in action. By 2025, this will have become big business. Retail media networks (led by players like Amazon, Walmart, Target, etc.) are expected to account for about 20% of all worldwide digital ad spend in 2024, roughly $140 billion, and forecasts show it climbing to $166 billion in 2025.

In the US, the holiday period is prime time for these networks as brands pay to get in front of shoppers researching gifts. Why does this matter for the consumer? In some ways, it means you’ll see even more targeted ads on retail sites and apps. The positive spin is that these ads (powered by retailers’ purchase data) might surface relevant deals or complementary products you need. The caution is that sometimes search results on a retailer’s site prioritize whoever paid for placement. Shoppers should be aware that the “top pick” or first results might be sponsored – essentially an ad – though usually labeled as such.

For retailers, the holiday season 2025 will likely break records for retail media. Impressions (ad views) in retail media hit a record 75 billion in Q4 2024 in the US, up 4% from the prior year, and that was without even counting Amazon’s sheer volume (Amazon is so large it’s often reported separately). More retailers, even outside traditional retail, are launching media networks. For example, Uber and airlines have started selling ad placements leveraging their customer data, blurring into what’s called “commerce media” beyond retail. But within retail, expect to see grocery chains, convenience stores, and specialty stores all touting their ability to show ads to shoppers on their digital platforms.

For instance, a pet food brand might buy space on Chewy’s website or app to promote a new treat during the peak gift-buying weeks for pet owners. The result is a new revenue stream that can bolster retailers’ margins (some retailers now generate a sizable chunk of profit from advertising). Walmart, for one, has seen its ad business (Walmart Connect) grow nearly 30% year-over-year, contributing meaningfully to its income.

This trend indirectly benefits consumers if retailers reinvest ad profits into lower prices or better services. We might also see more integration of content and commerce, like recipe sites partnering with grocery retail media so you can click to add ingredients to the cart.

Conclusion

The 2025 holiday season in the US will be a balancing act between innovation and tradition. Shoppers are blending e-commerce with store visits, leveraging AI-powered tools for convenience, trying new payment methods, and scrolling social feeds for inspiration. Retailers are pulling out all the stops – from turbocharging logistics to ensure gifts arrive on time, to trumpeting their sustainability efforts, and embracing emerging tech like AR/VR and retail media to stay ahead.

Economic factors have made consumers more value-conscious, yet the spirit of holiday shopping – finding that perfect something for loved ones – remains strong. All these trends point to a holiday shopping experience that is more connected, data-driven, and personalized than ever before. Whether you’re a consumer mapping out your gift list, a retailer strategizing for peak season, or a payments professional watching transaction volumes soar, the key trends of 2025 highlight an industry continually adapting. The way we shop in December 2025 reflects not just the season’s cheer but a retail landscape that’s smarter, faster, and increasingly shaped by technology and consumer values.